{"id":4315,"date":"2022-08-08T13:32:11","date_gmt":"2022-08-08T13:32:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.prestmit.io\/?p=4315"},"modified":"2026-01-22T04:39:47","modified_gmt":"2026-01-22T04:39:47","slug":"a-beginners-guide-to-the-bitcoin-stock-to-flow-model","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/prestmit.io\/blog\/a-beginners-guide-to-the-bitcoin-stock-to-flow-model","title":{"rendered":"A Beginner\u2019s Guide To The Bitcoin Stock-To-Flow Model"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_82_2 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-light-blue ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<label for=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-69de59a388ce7\" class=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-label\"><span class=\"ez-toc-cssicon\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/label><input type=\"checkbox\"  id=\"ez-toc-cssicon-toggle-item-69de59a388ce7\" checked aria-label=\"Toggle\" \/><nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/prestmit.io\/blog\/a-beginners-guide-to-the-bitcoin-stock-to-flow-model\/#What_Does_Stock-to-Flow_Mean\" >What Does Stock-to-Flow Mean?<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/prestmit.io\/blog\/a-beginners-guide-to-the-bitcoin-stock-to-flow-model\/#Who_Created_the_Bitcoin_S2F_Model\" >Who Created the Bitcoin S2F Model?<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/prestmit.io\/blog\/a-beginners-guide-to-the-bitcoin-stock-to-flow-model\/#How_Bitcoin_S2F_Works\" >How Bitcoin S2F Works<\/a><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-3' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/prestmit.io\/blog\/a-beginners-guide-to-the-bitcoin-stock-to-flow-model\/#1_Stock\" >1. Stock<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-5\" href=\"https:\/\/prestmit.io\/blog\/a-beginners-guide-to-the-bitcoin-stock-to-flow-model\/#2_Flow\" >2. Flow<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-6\" href=\"https:\/\/prestmit.io\/blog\/a-beginners-guide-to-the-bitcoin-stock-to-flow-model\/#3_How_it_Works\" >3. How it Works<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-7\" href=\"https:\/\/prestmit.io\/blog\/a-beginners-guide-to-the-bitcoin-stock-to-flow-model\/#How_Beginners_Should_Use_Bitcoin_S2F\" >How Beginners Should Use Bitcoin S2F<\/a><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-3' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-8\" href=\"https:\/\/prestmit.io\/blog\/a-beginners-guide-to-the-bitcoin-stock-to-flow-model\/#1_Watch_long-term_trends_not_daily_prices\" >1. Watch long-term trends, not daily prices<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-9\" href=\"https:\/\/prestmit.io\/blog\/a-beginners-guide-to-the-bitcoin-stock-to-flow-model\/#2_Compare_the_current_price_to_the_S2F_ratio\" >2. Compare the current price to the S2F ratio<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-10\" href=\"https:\/\/prestmit.io\/blog\/a-beginners-guide-to-the-bitcoin-stock-to-flow-model\/#3_Use_it_alongside_other_tools\" >3. Use it alongside other tools<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-11\" href=\"https:\/\/prestmit.io\/blog\/a-beginners-guide-to-the-bitcoin-stock-to-flow-model\/#Frequently_Asked_Questions_FAQs_About_Bitcoin_Stock-to-Flow_Model\" >Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) About Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow Model<\/a><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-3' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-12\" href=\"https:\/\/prestmit.io\/blog\/a-beginners-guide-to-the-bitcoin-stock-to-flow-model\/#1_Is_the_Stock-to-Flow_model_always_reliable\" >1. Is the Stock-to-Flow model always reliable?<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-13\" href=\"https:\/\/prestmit.io\/blog\/a-beginners-guide-to-the-bitcoin-stock-to-flow-model\/#2_Can_S2F_predict_Bitcoin_crashes\" >2. Can S2F predict Bitcoin crashes?<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-14\" href=\"https:\/\/prestmit.io\/blog\/a-beginners-guide-to-the-bitcoin-stock-to-flow-model\/#3_Can_I_use_S2F_to_decide_when_to_buy_or_sell\" >3. Can I use S2F to decide when to buy or sell?<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-15\" href=\"https:\/\/prestmit.io\/blog\/a-beginners-guide-to-the-bitcoin-stock-to-flow-model\/#4_Does_S2F_work_for_other_cryptocurrencies\" >4. Does S2F work for other cryptocurrencies?<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-16\" href=\"https:\/\/prestmit.io\/blog\/a-beginners-guide-to-the-bitcoin-stock-to-flow-model\/#Conclusion\" >Conclusion<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<p>Investing is easier when you have tools that break things down into simple pieces. Nobody wants to put money into something they don\u2019t understand. That\u2019s why tools like the Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow model became so widely discussed in the first place.<\/p>\n<p>The supply of <a href=\"https:\/\/prestmit.io\/blog\/bitcoin-101\">Bitcoin<\/a> follows a fixed schedule, and the Stock-to-Flow model builds on that schedule to make Bitcoin\u2019s scarcity easier to understand.<\/p>\n<p>When Bitcoin was trading around $7,000 in 2020, many investors used this model to explain why long-term price expectations were rising. Bitcoin didn\u2019t follow every prediction, but it later climbed to around $69,000 in 2021, which brought even more attention to the model.<\/p>\n<p>So what exactly is the Stock-to-Flow model, and how does it work? Let\u2019s break it down.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"What_Does_Stock-to-Flow_Mean\"><\/span>What Does Stock-to-Flow Mean?<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Stock-to-Flow is simply a way to measure how scarce something is.<\/p>\n<p>Think of <a href=\"https:\/\/prestmit.io\/blog\/5-reasons-why-bitcoin-could-be-a-better-investment-than-gold\">gold<\/a>: there\u2019s already a lot in the world (the stock), but only a little is mined each year (the flow). That scarcity, how hard it is to get more, is what gives gold its value.<\/p>\n<p>Bitcoin works the same way because its supply is fixed and predictable.\u00a0 We know how many bitcoins exist now, and we know exactly how many new coins will be created each year. The Stock-to-Flow model simply compares these two numbers to show how limited Bitcoin is, which helps to explain why it can be valuable.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Who_Created_the_Bitcoin_S2F_Model\"><\/span>Who Created the Bitcoin S2F Model?<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-8940 size-full lazyload\" data-src=\"https:\/\/blog.prestmit.io\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/Bitcoin_800x533_L_1637104307.jpg\" alt=\"Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow model \" width=\"560\" height=\"374\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/blog.prestmit.io\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/Bitcoin_800x533_L_1637104307.jpg 560w, https:\/\/blog.prestmit.io\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/Bitcoin_800x533_L_1637104307-150x100.jpg 150w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 560px) 100vw, 560px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 560px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 560\/374;\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow model was popularized by a crypto analyst known as PlanB<b>.<\/b><\/p>\n<p>PlanB took a concept commonly used for precious metals and applied it to Bitcoin. The idea became popular because it helped people understand how Bitcoin\u2019s fixed supply might influence its price over time, especially during halving events, when fewer new bitcoins are created every four years.<\/p>\n<p>In 2019, PlanB shared a model that linked Bitcoin\u2019s stock-to-flow ratio with its long-term price movements. The goal wasn\u2019t to predict daily prices, but to show how increasing scarcity over time could affect value.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"How_Bitcoin_S2F_Works\"><\/span>How Bitcoin S2F Works<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"1_Stock\"><\/span>1. Stock<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p>The total number of bitcoins that have already been mined. At the time of writing this article, there are about 19 million BTC in circulation.<\/p>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"2_Flow\"><\/span>2. Flow<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p>The number of new bitcoins added to circulation each year through <a href=\"https:\/\/prestmit.io\/blog\/what-is-bitcoin-mining-how-does-it-work\">mining<\/a>. Today, that\u2019s around 328,500 coins per year.<\/p>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"3_How_it_Works\"><\/span>3. How it Works<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p>The Stock-to-Flow model divides the stock by the flow to see how scarce Bitcoin is, and the result is something called the Stock-to-Flow ratio. The bigger the number, the harder it is to get new coins, and the rarer the asset becomes. This is why gold, for example, is scarcer than copper.<\/p>\n<p>Let\u2019s put the numbers in for a clearer illustration:<\/p>\n<p>Current stock = 19,000,000<\/p>\n<p>Flow = 328,500<\/p>\n<p>Stock-to-Flow ratio = 19,000,000 \u00f7 328,500 \u2248 57.8<\/p>\n<p>This means the existing supply of Bitcoin is about 58 times larger than the new coins being added each year.<\/p>\n<p>Here\u2019s the interesting part: every four years, a <a href=\"https:\/\/prestmit.io\/blog\/bitcoin-halving-how-it-works-and-its-relevance\">Bitcoin halving<\/a> event occurs, where miners earn half as many new bitcoins. This cuts the flow in half, which doubles the Stock-to-Flow ratio:<\/p>\n<p>So, Stock-to-Flow ratio after halving will be = 19,000,000 \u00f7 164,250 \u2248 115.7<\/p>\n<p>Over time, Bitcoin becomes progressively scarcer, which is exactly what the Stock-to-Flow model is designed to show.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"How_Beginners_Should_Use_Bitcoin_S2F\"><\/span>How Beginners Should Use Bitcoin S2F<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Bitcoin S2F is like a guide to understanding scarcity. Here\u2019s how beginners can make sense of it:<\/p>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"1_Watch_long-term_trends_not_daily_prices\"><\/span>1. Watch long-term trends, not daily prices<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p>The Stock-to-Flow model is all about seeing Bitcoin\u2019s scarcity over the long run, especially during halving events when new coins become harder to mine. It\u2019s not meant to predict every jump or dip in the price; Bitcoin can swing up and down for all sorts of short-term reasons that don\u2019t really matter to the bigger picture.<\/p>\n<p>If you\u2019re a beginner, take a step back and look at the long-term trends. Look at Bitcoin\u2019s Stock-to-Flow ratio as a way to understand scarcity and value over time, not as a tool to stress about daily price moves.<\/p>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"2_Compare_the_current_price_to_the_S2F_ratio\"><\/span>2. Compare the current price to the S2F ratio<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p>Investors sometimes look at the Stock-to-Flow ratio to see if Bitcoin is either overvalued or undervalued in relation to its scarcity.<\/p>\n<p>For example, let\u2019s say the Stock-to-Flow ratio suggests that Bitcoin\u2019s scarcity could support a price of $60,000, but the market price today is $50,000. Some investors might see that as a potential opportunity to buy, because Bitcoin is cheaper than what its scarcity might suggest.<\/p>\n<p>On the other hand, if the market price is much higher than what the ratio suggests, some people may choose to wait or be more cautious, because Bitcoin might be overvalued relative to its scarcity.<\/p>\n<p>The key takeaway for beginners is that if applied well, the ratio can help you spot moments when Bitcoin might be undervalued or overvalued in the long term. It works the same way you check the weather before going outside; it won\u2019t tell you exactly when it will rain, but it helps you plan smarter.<\/p>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"3_Use_it_alongside_other_tools\"><\/span>3. Use it alongside other tools<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p>Stock-to-Flow is helpful, but it doesn\u2019t account for everything like demand, regulations, or global events. Beginners shouldn\u2019t rely on S2F alone. Instead, combine it with other research.<\/p>\n<p>You can:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li aria-level=\"1\"><b>Check market trends:<\/b> Look at how Bitcoin has been moving over weeks or months.<\/li>\n<li aria-level=\"1\"><b>Follow the news:<\/b> Major announcements, regulations, or adoption stories that can influence price.<\/li>\n<li aria-level=\"1\"><b>Learn basic investment principles:<\/b> Think about risk management, diversification, and how much of your money you\u2019re comfortable putting in.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>By using Stock-to-Flow as one tool among many others, you get a more complete picture of the market.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Frequently_Asked_Questions_FAQs_About_Bitcoin_Stock-to-Flow_Model\"><\/span><b>Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) About Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow Model<\/b><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"1_Is_the_Stock-to-Flow_model_always_reliable\"><\/span>1. Is the Stock-to-Flow model always reliable?<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p>No, it isn\u2019t always reliable. It has aligned with Bitcoin\u2019s price during some cycles in the past, but it can miss or diverge significantly, especially because it doesn\u2019t include demand, regulation, or macro events.<\/p>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"2_Can_S2F_predict_Bitcoin_crashes\"><\/span>2. Can S2F predict Bitcoin crashes?<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p>No, the Stock-to-Flow model cannot predict crashes. It is designed to show Bitcoin\u2019s long-term scarcity, not short-term market swings. Prices can fall for many reasons, like news, regulations, or big investors selling, and S2F doesn\u2019t account for these.<\/p>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"3_Can_I_use_S2F_to_decide_when_to_buy_or_sell\"><\/span>3. Can I use S2F to decide when to buy or sell?<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p>Yes, you can, but use it carefully<b>.<\/b> The Stock-to-Flow ratio can give hints if Bitcoin is overvalued or undervalued, which might help guide buying or selling decisions. However, it\u2019s not a standalone signal; so, always consider your investment goals, risk tolerance, and other market factors before acting.<\/p>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"4_Does_S2F_work_for_other_cryptocurrencies\"><\/span>4. Does S2F work for other cryptocurrencies?<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p>No, it does not. The Stock-to-Flow model works best for assets with a fixed and predictable supply, like Bitcoin. Most other cryptocurrencies don\u2019t have this kind of schedule, so S2F isn\u2019t as reliable for them.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Conclusion\"><\/span>Conclusion<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>The Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow model is simple and deeply tied to how Bitcoin\u2019s supply mechanics work, but it\u2019s not a standalone price predictor. The smartest beginners treat S2F as a guide to see long-term trends, compare current prices to potential scarcity, and understand why halving events make Bitcoin progressively rarer.<\/p>\n<p>By combining scarcity logic with other tools, you learn not just what the model says, but why it matters to the conversation around Bitcoin\u2019s future. For beginners, understanding scarcity is often the first step toward understanding Bitcoin itself.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Investing is easier when you have tools that break things down into simple pieces. Nobody wants to put money into something they don\u2019t understand. That\u2019s why tools like the Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow model became so widely discussed in the first place. The supply of Bitcoin follows a fixed schedule, and the Stock-to-Flow model builds on that [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":16679,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"inline_featured_image":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1788],"tags":[12,1373],"class_list":["post-4315","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-crypto","tag-bitcoin","tag-stock-to-flow-model"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v25.5 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>A Beginner\u2019s Guide To The Bitcoin Stock-To-Flow Model<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Understand the Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow model. 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